It's another election year. A defining moment in our young democratic governance life. So who are the potential parties / person's that could play a significant role ?
1- Yameen Abdul Gayyoom
- has relative support of Military and Police
- bets on financial gains to close allies and other tactics of questionable methods including fear and intimidation
-has the backing off businesses such as SunTravel and donations from allies national/international
2- Mohamed Nasheed (Anni)
- has MDP backing (25% of total population in the last election)
- seen as a polarising figure
- legal right to stand as a candidate hindered by current regime
- independent and other party members unlikely to support
- religious groups would not support
-BUT still has a better chance of uniting MDP
3- Gasim Ibrahim
- has finance and support of 15% population based on last election
- legal hindrance to standing
4- Abdullah Shahid (Gayyoom regime minister)
-has charisma and presence of a leader
- MDP grassroots very unlikely to support except if Nasheed fully backs him
- accusations of past corruption and possible material with current regime to blackmail him
- can stand up to Yameen
Election Strategy of Opposition:
Opposition speaks of s unified candidate but still haven't been able to decide. It is likely Nasheed would back Shahid over Ibrahim Solih (Ibu). Gasim Ibrahim an his party JP, would likely support Shahid. It is unclear if the majority of public or even MDP grassroots would support Shahid based on his past relationships to dictator Maumoon Gayyoom.
Abdullah Yameen's Strategy:
It is very clear he will buy out his opposition and use underhand tactics of fear and intimidation to silence his opposition including but not limited to arrest and detention. His lure using money has effectively worked in 'buying' opposition politicians. He can utilised the jusiciary and police and the military relatively.
Most likely Scenario :
Unless there is a third voice or new party or movement Fielding a new candidate with strong ideals and ability to challenge the status quo of current politics, it is likely that the two candidates would be Shahid and Yameen. Unless the opposition backs Shahid fully he will not be able to stand against the full load of Yameen's tactics. If so Yameen would win and buried we would be.